Russia makes Iran say and do what it could not openly do without creating a major conflict. Whether in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon or Yemen, Iran is not defending its own interests but those of Russia, which has considered these countries as satellites since the Soviet era. In this respect, Iran plays the same role as Cuba did in the 1960-80s in Latin America.

Normalizing the situation with Iran is not in Russia’s interest. It is doing all it can to prevent it. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said it well in his leaked interview: in 2015, Lavrov did everything possible to derail the nuclear deal.

The Russians, the Caspian and the Iranians

The Rus’ first penetrated to the Muslim areas adjacent to the Caspian Sea as traders. By the early 9^th century, the Norsemen settled in northwestern Russia, where they established a settlement. From there, they began trading with the Byzantine Empire along the Dnieper trade route and with the Muslim lands around the Caspian Sea along the Volga trade route.
The Russo-Persian War of 1722-1723, known in Russian historiography as the Persian campaign of Peter the Great, was a war between the Russian Empire and Safavid Iran, triggered by the tsar’s attempt to expand Russian influence in the Caspian and Caucasus regions and to prevent its rival, the Ottoman Empire, from territorial gains in the region at the expense of declining Safavid Iran.
The Russian victory ratified for Safavid Iran’s cession of their territories in the North Caucasus, South Caucasus and contemporary northern Iran to Russia, comprising the cities of Derbent (southern Dagestan) and Baku and their nearby surrounding lands, as well as the provinces of Gilan, Shirvan, Mazandaran and Astarabad conform the Treaty of Saint Petersburg (1723).
The territories remained in Russian hands for nine and twelve years, when respectively according to the Treaty of Resht of 1732 and the Treaty of Ganja of 1735, they were returned to Iran.
(Painting: “Rus’ Varangians and their longships in Gardariki”, by Nicholas Roerich)

Besides the fact that Russia needs an isolated Iran for its proxy wars, other motives come into play, namely oil and the Caspian.

Russia is the leading oil-producing country in the world. It does not have an efficient industry capable of exporting like other industrial countries. Its sales of arms and sometimes nuclear plants are not enough to maintain a huge country of 150 mln people, stretching over 10,000 km, and above all, involved in massive military spending. Russia survives only on its oil and gas revenues. And in the current gloomy situation, it does not want any competitor in this vital field. In this respect, it colludes with Saudi Arabia to do its utmost to prevent Iran from becoming a major oil exporter again. They are doing the same with Iraq. It should be noted that the largest hydrocarbon reserves in the world are not in Saudi Arabia nor in Russia, but in Iran and Iraq. Their ejections from the oil market are convenient for everyone, except of course the buyers.

Geo-strategically, since the beginning of the 18^th century, Russia has sought to transform the Caspian Sea into an interior basin. All the Caspian riparians are landlocked countries, except Iran. Whatever the international political direction of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan, these countries, given their geographical destiny (as Napoleon would have said), will always be condemned to submit to Russia. Indeed, this has been the case for more than two centuries. Only Iran can escape. Since it is not possible to isolate Iran geographically, Russia seeks to isolate it politically. Eventually, Iran will have no choice but to join the Eurasian space (EAEU) as Ghalibaf already suggests, i.e. to become a province of the Russian Empire.

For two years now, Rouhani’s government has been playing the comedy of seeking to revive the nuclear agreement, while the Iranian regime has been doing everything possible to kill it once and for all: from uranium enrichment to pseudo-revolutionary adventures, everything is being done so that Joseph Biden cannot, even with the best will in the world, return to the agreement.

The current events in Gaza are obviously a godsend for this policy. Things did not break out spontaneously, they had been prepared for more than a month, in other words with the beginning of the month of Ramadan. It is indeed a plot led by the Russians and their Iranian agents.

The Iranian hardliners believe they are in a strong position by relying on China. They are convinced that they will be able to integrate into the Chinese economic space and thus do without the West at the lowest cost. However, they will soon be disappointed. In addition to the well known Chinese plundering practices, China is on the verge of collapse as I already announced more than a year ago. The signs of this collapse are numerous: the very repressive laws on food wasting, the shortage of electronic circuits and other components, the suspension of many construction sites, the shutdown of many state-run news websites… China is in slow motion, and what they are announcing is only propaganda.

Iran has bet on the Chinese lame horse and has full confidence in its worst enemy, Russia. Will it be able to get out of this enclave? Cuba, for sixty years, has not been able to do so. ■