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The World after 2019-nCoV

The unanticipated factor that is reshaping the World Order

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  10 forum posts

Barely the ink on the signatures has dried, the trade agreement between China and the USA is about to become irrelevant due to a microscopic saboteur called the coronavirus 2019-nCoV. This agreement made sense in respect of an expanding China. It may become a serious handicap for the world economy, including that of the United States, when it becomes necessary to salvage China from sinking to avoid drowning with it.

nCoV, the little troublemaker nobody anticipated...
The trade agreement between China and the USA is about to become irrelevant due to a microscopic saboteur called the coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
(Click to enlarge.)

While international organizations such as the IMF, the OECD or the ADB are not commenting so much on the potentially devastating economic consequences of the pandemic for both China and the entire planet, no one is so naive as to believe that we could get out of this crisis without a scratch. World leaders, starting with Donald Trump, are trying to reassure people and markets to prevent uncontrollable panic attacks. They are counting on Beijing’s brutality to confine people and the virus, while keeping their fingers crossed that the epidemic will not reach their own countries. For once, China will not be blamed for being authoritarian.

For my part, I side with Babak Khandani, who believes that as of January 26, the death toll has already reached 23,000 and that it is highly likely that 15 mln people will die in mainland China alone. China will not emerge intact from this epidemic, dragging the world’s economies - already weakened by the financial bubble - into a long-lasting recession. In my view, the most vulnerable country is the United States.

Clearly, air transport and the tourism industry will be the first victims of China’s shutdown. While the shutdown is already driving down oil prices, it will also lead to a shortage of the cheap goods that we import from China in astronomical quantities. The consequence will be a significant increase in prices which will not please Amazon, Apple or any manufacturer using Chinese components in its products.

In this context, the Belt and Road Initiative will take a severe blow, as China will be forced to divert funds to heal its internal wounds to the detriment of its external expansion. All this comes at a bad time when IMF experts were already predicting a decline in growth for China (5.8% in 2020 vs. 6.1% in 2019).

Let’s just pray that the epidemic doesn’t spread to the Indian subcontinent where states have no power over an undisciplined (or “free”, as you like) population to force them to stay home for three weeks. ■

  Forum posts

  • It’s amazing. A big congrats to the author. He had everything foreseen as early as January 2020, while we here at the IMF nobody saw anything coming for months and months. There are still those who continue to deny the extent of the disaster.

  • There are always catastrophists who announce a lot of stuff. From time to time, SHTF and we will say that the one who predicted it was a genius.

  • Check to see if the date of the article is not doctored to make us believe that they had it all foreseen.

  • Actually, I found this site by chance. It looks clean and serious. They are by no means catastrophist. They’ re even a bit boring, too politically correct.

  • To check if the date has been faked, there is archive.org

  • Hey Juliano, do you really work at the IMF or are you just bragging behind your keyboard?

  • The IMF, like all these large organisations, impresses from the outside, but it’s all smoke and mirrors. On the other hand this guy, I mean the author, deserves the Nobel Prize in Economy.

  • I know I have to be your biggest fan. I have told so many people about you and your work. Your name literally comes up in every conversation I have with people about all this political stuff. I just want to take a moment and thank you once again for all the work you have done and for the truth that you are exposing for us. I know that my faith has gotten much stronger because of you. Thank you Nazar and may God so richly bless you.

  • the Coronahoax Plandemic is proven to be fake. DS created CV.

    Don’t listen to all these sheep that think they’re woke!

  • We live in a crazy world. If you believe in COVID, you should get the Bill Gates vaccine. It won’t be a fast as a Gremlin going pop in a microwave, like in the Gremlins movie, but knowing some idiot is going to painfully die of butt cancer, or something else because they are an idiot believing in UN Communism and Bill Gates, gets what they deserve.

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