• Eurasia’s Great Game

    by James M. DORSEY

    The Russian fortress Albazin stormed by Manchu/Chinese Qing forces Qing dynasty siege of the Cossack fort of Albazin (1686) resulting in the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689 xhich gave the land to China. (Click to enlarge) Zbigniew Brzezinski hosts a dinner for Chinese Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping 28 January 1979. (Click to enlarge) Addressing last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, then US defence secretary Jim Mattis dismissed fears first voiced in 1997 by Zbigniew Brzezinski, one of America’s greatest 20th century strategists who advised US presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and Jimmy Carter, that long-term US interests would be most threatened by a “grand coalition” of China and Russia “united not by ideology but by complimentary grievances.” On the contrary, Mr. Mattis suggested. China and Russia have a “natural non-convergence of interests” despite the fact that both countries have defined their relationship as a “comprehensive (...)

  • China’s Silk Road Economic Belt

    by Zhang Hongzhou

    The Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) initiative put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his Central Asia visits in September 2013 is considered as one of the two diplomatic initiatives by the new Chinese leadership, with Central Asia the centrepiece of the Belt. Silk Road Economic Belt routes (Credit: kommersant.uz — Click to enlarge) The success of the SREB will to a large extent depend on how well Central Asian countries and the region’s dominant power, Russia, respond to China’s initiative. While official statements tend to suggest that all (...)

  • Economic Consequences of the US Withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal

    by Nazar TAMASHEVSKA

    The Economic Consequences of the US Withdrawal from the Nuclear Deal (PDF) (Click to download) The Economic Consequences of the US Withdrawal from the Nuclear Dealn Murat Aslanr Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara — İRAM (September 2018) ISBN-13: 978-605-7559-02-9 Last May, Donald Trump announced the American withdrawal from the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement, a decision that opens a period of great uncertainty on the international relations front. Concluded in 2015 in Vienna between the Islamic Republic and the so-called 5+1 group (China, France, Germany, (...)

  • Do not Ride the Bomb

    by Ali BAKEER

    Some reports said the victims included the personal facilities commander of the Revolutionary Guards in the Khuzestan region, as well as a Revolutionary Guard colonel and military personnel who were said to have fought on Syrian and Iraqi fronts. Although some attributed the attack to the separatist Al-Ahwaz (الأحواز) organization, carried out by a sympathetic group who published videos of the supposed perpetrators, but no further details on how the attack was carried out was given, neither whether the attackers came to Iran from neighbouring countries or from (...)

  • Eurasian Rail Alliance Index

    by Nazar TAMASHEVSKA

    The CILF 2018, the 13th China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Transportation Fair took place from 11 October to 13 October in the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Centre in Shenzhen, China and was organized by the City Government. The Fair gathered more than 1,800 exhibitors from 50 countries, with international companies having over 30% of exhibition platform space. Rail container transit is the newest and indeed the fastest growing segment in the rail transportation market. In 2017, the amount of transit (...)

  • Pakistani Poker: Playing Saudi Arabia against China

    by James M. DORSEY

    The Pakistani moves threaten a key leg of the $60 bln [*] plus Chinese investment in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a crown jewel of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative. They also could jeopardize Chinese hopes to create a second overland route to Iran, a key node in China’s transportation links to Europe. Finally, they grant Saudi Arabia a prominent place in the Chinese-funded port of Gwadar that would significantly weaken Iran’s ability to compete with its Indian-backed seaport of (...)

  • Turkey’s Lira Meltdown

    by Nazar TAMASHEVSKA

    Turkey’s economy is overheating with an inflation at a 15-year high and a current account deficit gaped at just over 7% of GDP. So when the meeting came and went and the central bank left its policy loose, investors balked. The rate of Turkish price growth has jumped from 17.9% to 24.52% on the year, while on the month an increase from 2.3% to 6.3% has been seen. The Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) hiked interest rates from 17.75% to 24% in mid-September, clearly with no immediate impact on prices. Turkey: Monetary Policy (...)

  • A Second Iran-Petrodollars War?

    by Babak KHANDANI

    In the economic front, Iran is finding it increasingly difficult to sell its oil and derivatives. Unlike the period before nuclear agreement, EU quickly rallied to the Americans. Russia pretends to support Iran while seeking to take advantage of the absence of Iranian oil to increase its own exports. Even the most loyal customers, such as India and South Korea, are failing. Netanyahu ignores the 9th commandment Click to enlarge (© Satrapia) On the media front, Iran is blamed of all the misery on the planet, from global warming to the giant panda’s disappearance. (...)

  • Eastern Mediterranean Energy Geostrategy on Proposed Gas Export Routes

    by Thrassy MARKETOS

    Eastern Mediterranean Energy Geostrategy on Proposed Gas Export Routes (PDF) Published by Fondation pour le Recherche (Click to download) From 2008 onwards, the security and political order in this subsystem, existing since the onset of the Cold War, collapsed, due to the deterioration in relations between the USA’s two most capable regional allies, Turkey and Israel and the continuing fallout of the Arab Spring. It’s been replaced by a widening civil war in Syria and a geopolitical rivalry among Turkey, Israel, Cyprus and Greece and between Western countries and the (...)

  • China Struggles with Belt and Road Pushback

    by James M. DORSEY

    “It’s normal and understandable that development focus can change at different stages in different countries, especially with changes in government. So China can also make some strategic adjustments when cooperating with these countries, but it’s definitely not a reconsideration of the B&R (Belt and Road) initiative”, Wang Jun, deputy director of the Department of Information at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges told the Chinese Communist Party’s Global Times newspaper. Credit: Center for Global Development (Click to enlarge) The Chinese (...)

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