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A New War in the Middle East in Perspective

Democrats in the White House to destabilize the Persian Gulf

Wednesday 25 November 2020

With Trump’s chances of staying in the White House melting like snow in the sun, and Joe Biden’s promise to rejoin the nuclear treaty with Iran (JCPOA), the Islamic regime in Tehran is breathing again. The exchange rate of currencies against the Rial shows it well: 273,000 rials for $1 two months ago against 250,100 today. The Iranian currency had even reached an all-time low just before the American elections to reach 330,000 rials for $1.

Nevertheless, if I were in the place of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and his President, Rouhani, I would not be so relieved because two things inevitably await the Iranian regime:

  1. The collapse of the World economy
  2. War with Saudi Arabia

Let’s examine these two outlooks in sequence.

The crash of 2022

President Trump had better leave his seat to his rival without delay, as the man who will occupy the White House in September 2022 will bear full responsibility for the systemic collapse of the World economy starting on that date. This crash is inevitable, yet the economic, social and monetary policies of the Democrats will not help.

Throughout the year 2021 governments, including those of the most industrialised countries, will do everything possible to keep their economies in a state of artificial life support. But massive injections of cash will eventually finish off the sick, much like those suffering from septicaemia who ultimately succumb to the massive doses of antibiotics that were supposed to save them.

From January 2022 onwards, doubts will begin to arise about any recovery, and as things always happen after the holidays, in September 2022 we will face the outbreak of a chain of domino bankruptcies that governments won’t be capable of containing.

The immediate consequence of this collapse will obviously be a severe drop in the demand for oil and consequently its price. The oil-producing countries, first and foremost Iran which has already lost its traditional market shares, will be literally ruined.

I already forecast a barrel of oil below $10, and I am perhaps optimistic. It is on this basis that I plan to redirect the objectives of the Satrapia consortium, whose economic model is being questioned and therefore needs to be reformulated.

The war with Saudi Arabia

Give or take a few days, the Iran-Iraq war began exactly two years after the Camp David Accords by which Egypt and Israel made peace. Will we see history repeat itself, and witness a second war of the Persian Gulf States against Iran two years after the agreements between the UAE and Israel?

Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear treaty was primarily to satisfy Saudi Arabia and its allies. In return, the American President had obtained from them the recognition of the state of Israel as well as patience towards the Iranians. With an Iran-friendly Joe Biden, these two elements would be challenged, especially since Saudi Arabia and other allies have not yet formalized their relations with Israel.

The Iranians, for their part, will not fail to drum for what they consider a great victory and will no doubt enrage Prince bin Salman, ready to spend billions to bring the Shiite regime in Tehran to its knees.

Indeed, in 1990, it was a $10 barrel that prompted Saddam Hussein to attack Kuwait. As they say in French, “when there is no more hay in the stable the horses fight”. ■

View online : Crusade against the Integration of the Middle-East with the Caucasus and Central Asia

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