So Turkey seems to be a safe haven, and its leader could therefore have his hands free for his Ottoman adventures by attacking both Russia (through Syria) and Europe (through Greece).

Or maybe things are going very badly for Erdogan and he would have only one solution to save himself from bankruptcy: robbery and blackmail.

The coronavirus has one merit: it does not discriminate. Yellow, black, white, poor, rich, humble, powerful, it attacks them all without any racial, ethnic or social consideration. It is also deaf to propaganda and is incorruptible. He moves forward undisturbed by the gesticulations and the make-up of the figures that all have been used to for decades.

Indeed, the cornavirus complies only with the natural laws of epidemics that Erdogan cannot escape. One cannot imagine by what miracle cities such as Istanbul and Ankara, which are heavily visited by Iranians, would not be infested by the disease. But, instead of taking care of the health of its population, Turkey is engaging in the most vulgar banditry by seeking to resurrect ISIS in Idlib and attacking the Greek border by fomenting a migration crisis.

The truth is Erdogan’s adventures cost money and damage the economic health of Turkey. The Turkish Lira is much weakened, and the prospects for development are not so bright. Moreover, in Central Asia and the Caucasus, the Chinese are increasingly monopolising this privileged market of the “Turkish brothers”.

Erdogan therefore sees only one solution: to make the Americans, the Arabs and especially the Europeans pay.

Alas for Erdogan, the timetable is not favourable to him. The current pandemic is much more serious than we think. Turkey will suffer from its social consequences which could destabilise it for a long time to come. ■