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Tajikistan’s Q1 2015 Inflation Stands at 1.5%

Friday 10 April 2015

DUSHANBE (Avesta News Agency) – Inflation for the three months of this year has stood at 1.5% in Tajikistan, the country’s National Bank said on Friday.

In March, prices for goods and rates for services rendered to the population rose by 0.8%, 0.7% higher than in February.

Annual inflation for the period from March 2014 to March 2015 stood at 6.5%. The government expected the year-end inflation to stand at 7.5% this year. The year-end inflation for 2014 stood at 7.4%, 3.5% higher than in 2013.

Like many other currencies in the region, the Tajik somoni depreciated against the US dollar in 2014, by 11.2%, worsening inflation. The central bank avoided further depreciation with interventions totaling $137 mln. From 1 January to early March 2015, the somoni depreciated a further 2.9%.

According to ADB analyses, inflation will likely accelerate in 2015 to 10.0% or more as currency depreciation raises the prices of imported consumer goods. A more stable currency and some recovery in remittances would allow inflation to ease back to 6.5%-7.0% in 2016. With growth slowing, the current account deficit is forecast to narrow to 5.9% of GDP in 2015. It could narrow further to 4.8% in 2016 with some recovery in remittances.

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