DUSHANBE (Asia-Plus) – Based on current data, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the first three months of this year stood at more than 8.3 bln somoni ( $1.4 bln), an increase of 5.3% over the same period last year in comparable prices, according to the Agency for Statistics under the President of Tajikistan. Meanwhile, the real GDP growth rate fell 1.7% over the report period compared to January-March 2014 – from 7.0 to 5.3%.

The Government of Tajikistan expects the year-end GDP to stand at 47 bln somoni this year, an increase of 7.6% over the last year in comparable prices.

Tajik experts attribute the fall in the real GDP growth rate to, first of all, global economic slowdown and deceleration of economic growth in the second half-year of 2014 in the countries, which are the major trading partners of Tajikistan. Tajikistan’s GDP rose by 6.7% in 2014, reaching 45.6 bln somoni.

Declines in remittances and the traditional exports of aluminium and cotton slowed growth to 6.7% in 2014 from 7.4% a year earlier. Inflation worsened to 6.1%, and the current account deficit to 7.9% of GDP. Expansion will likely slow further to 4.0% in 2015 before recovering to 4.8% in 2016. Inflation will accelerate to 10.0% in 2015 with currency depreciation before easing to 6.5%. The current account deficit should narrow to 5.9% in 2015 and 4.8% in 2016.