Tajikistan’s external debt hit US $2.1 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2011, or 33.4% of the country’s GDP, KyrTAG reports.

World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (PDF)
Based on the external low-income country (LIC) debt sustainability analysis (DSA), Tajikistan’s risk of debt distress remains high. 1 Under the baseline scenario, external debt burden indicators in present value terms remain below their respective thresholds, with the exception of the debt-to-exports ratio. The high level of concessionality of the external public and publicly guaranteed debt is a key factor underlying these projections. A decline in GDP and/or export growth rates, a shortfall in other inflows, or a sharp exchange rate depreciation relative to the baseline, all have the potential to undermine debt sustainability.

In the third quarter the short term debt increased by $25 million.

Tajikistan’s main creditors include the Asian Bank for Development and the Islamic Development Bank, the World Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China. As much as $800 million of the external debt accounts for the Export-Import Bank of China.

Tajikistan’s Finance Ministry reported $40 million was allocated from the state budged to serve the country’s external debt during the first nine months of 2011.

Tajikistan External Debt Trend