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Wednesday 12 May 2021

OPEC Reiterates Global Oil Demand Forecast for 2021

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  11 forum posts

VIENNA (OPEC press service) — OPEC reiterated its 2021 forecasts for world oil demand on Tuesday, as it nudged its predictions for global economic growth higher.

Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, at the International Monetary and Financial Committee Meeting, 8 April 2021, via videoconference said:

Following an estimated decline of 3.5% in 2020, the OPEC Secretariat forecasts global economic growth of 5.4% in 2021.

The measures to stem the spread of COVID-19 not only severely affected global economic growth, they also caused a historic demand shock in the oil market, which led to extreme volatility in oil prices. The impact of the lockdown measures has disproportionally affected mobility and thereby fuel demand. World oil demand is therefore estimated by the Secretariat to have contracted by a very significant 9.5 mb/d in 2020 and is forecast to grow by around 6 mb/d in 2021. Similarly, non-OPEC supply suffered from the unprecedented events and is estimated to have declined by around 2.5 mb/d in 2020, while it is forecast to grow by around 1 mb/d in 2021.

  Forum posts

  • The demand was at its lowest, it can only go up. Unless there is a sanitary disaster, but I don’t believe in it because the vaccine will solve the COVID problem. On the other hand, nothing is sure about the pricing because for the moment there is no Iranian oil and almost no Iraqi oil. The prices will end up collapsing and it will be even worse for OPEC than at the present.

  • Lol there’s a surplus of oil. Prices are going up due to manipulation and false flag attacks on oil supplies like we witnessed last month and we’ll witness again really soon.

  • This is silly. Oil was -$40 (minus sign!) a barrel at this time last year, and we won’t see demand (or lack thereof) until 2023 at the earliest. It’s mindless to overlook the overcapacity created by Chase Bank’s $150/barrel oil futures in 2008 (they lost money and were bailed out). With the OPEC cuts, there is still overcapacity in oil supply and there is still full oil inventories

  • Europe needs high oil prices to justify its "green" energy policy. With oil under $40, they will be screwed with all their wind turbines.

  • India is facing severe challenges with the pandemic and will therefore see its recovery adversely impacted in the second quarter.

  • Currently, everyone wants to be optimistic. People believe that if they say something with faith, it will be so. It won’t be. The pandemic will be with us for at least another year, as will all the major problems we had before the pandemic, such as overproduction, migration, the debt burden...

  • All forecasts are based on the assumption that the Chinese data are trustworthy. When the world discovers that they are hiding a dead elephant under the carpet, some will commit suicide.

  • Colonial Pipeline expects ’full restart decision’ by Wednesday Meanwhile, oil prices rose today after a drop in U.S. crude inventories.

  • High commodity prices are strictly due to inflation. There is no economic recovery in real terms because it is all financed with printed money. We don’t want to finance deficits with tax increases and we can’t afford to raise rates, so we pay for everything with the inflation tax.

  • Fears about the return of inflation have made markets volatile in recent days. Investors’ anxiety is totally justified!

  • The world economy is at a standstill and the price of commodities such as oil is soaring! What could be more senseless. On all the TV channels, they only talk about the inflation explosion. But come on, the price of oil and other raw materials is artificially sustained, otherwise there is less demand and still as much potential supply. Prices will fall because they cannot be kept at current levels forever. It is a big deflation that awaits us and not hyperinflation. At the same time, the bankruptcy of all the hyper indebted states.

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