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OPEC Doubts about 2021

Wednesday 12 August 2020

LONDON (Reuters) — World oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the coronavirus and there are doubts about next year’s recovery, OPEC forecast on Wednesday, potentially making it harder for the group and its allies to support the market.

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (PDF)
Crude and product price movements — August 2020
(Click to download)

World oil demand will tumble by 9.06 bln barrels per day (bpd) this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 8.95 mln bpd decline expected a month ago.

Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus curtailed travel and economic activity. While some countries have eased lockdowns, allowing demand to recover, fear of new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices and OPEC expects this to persist.

“Crude and product price developments in the second half of 2020 will continue to be impacted by concerns over a second wave of infections and higher global stocks”, OPEC said in the report.

OPEC stuck to its forecast that in 2021 oil demand would rebound by 7 mln bpd but said the outlook was subject to large uncertainties that might result in “a negative impact on petroleum consumption”, such as demand for air travel, more fuel-efficient cars and more competition from other fuels.

The price of OPEC basket of thirteen crudes stood at $45.21 a barrel on Tuesday, compared with $45.01 the previous day, according to OPEC Secretariat calculations. The OPEC Reference Basket of Crudes (ORB) is made up of the following: Saharan Blend (Algeria), Girassol (Angola), Djeno (Congo), Zafiro (Equatorial Guinea), Rabi Light (Gabon), Iran Heavy (Iran), Basra Light (Iraq), Kuwait Export (Kuwait), Es Sider (Libya), Bonny Light (Nigeria), Arab Light (Saudi Arabia), Murban (UAE) and Merey (Venezuela).


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